CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2015-07-19T09:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-07-19T09:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/8951/-1
CME Note: The arrival time for the CME is a little uncertain since it was possible embedded with a CIR preceding a CH HSS
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-07-22T15:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-07-22T21:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2015-07-19T14:30Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 750
Longitude (deg): 17S
Latitude (deg): 44W
Half-angular width (deg): 40 

Notes: CME from filament eruption on the southwest quadrant
Space weather advisor: Gareth Powell

Lead Time: 56.30 hour(s)
Difference: -5.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2015-07-20T07:12Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy